According to the most recent SWPC report, the range of influence will be primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude, with the exception of the equator. On Earth, modest power grid oscillations can occur in this region for a variety of reasons. It is possible that it will have just a little impact on satellite activities while in orbit.
It is possible that Mother Nature will illuminate the skies further south than typical across the northern tier of the United States, such as northern Michigan and Maine; aurora may be visible at high latitudes as well.
The SWPC reported in its most recent Forecast Discussion that “a recurrent, negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) is predicted to become geoeffective late on January 15,” adding that “improved circumstances are projected late on January 15.”
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Coronal holes can occur at any point on the Sun’s surface, but they are more common and persistent during solar minimum years than at any other time. Although coronal holes are most numerous and persistent around the solar north and south poles, they can develop and spread to lower solar latitudes if they are allowed to do so.
A coronal hole might potentially form on its own without the assistance of other structures, or it could split off from its parent polar hole and establish a separate structure. Highly energetic solar wind streams, often known as “CS HSS,” are long-lasting generators of coronal holes that persist for extended periods of time.
It is the interaction of the high-speed stream with the comparably slower ambient solar wind that causes a compression zone, also known as a co-rotating interaction region (CIR).
According to the SWPC, the CIR will be observed to lead the CH HSS when viewed from the perspective of a stationary observer in interplanetary space.
Strong CIRs and the faster CH HSS can cause periods of geomagnetic storming in the Earth’s magnetosphere to the G1-G2 (Minor to Moderate) levels; however, there may be some instances of stronger storming in the future.
NOAA forecasters are attempting to determine the potential impact of a geomagnetic storm by analyzing a variety of solar data collected by spacecraft. If the Earth is experiencing the effects of a coronal hole in conjunction with the projected effects of a coronal mass ejection, it is possible that a more severe impact and more extreme geomagnetic storming will be experienced.
By examining data from the DSCOVER and ACE spacecraft, forecasters can anticipate when the high solar wind from a coronal hole will arrive on Earth. They look for a few features in the data to determine when the increased solar wind will arrive on Earth. These criteria are as follows:
Solar storms, in addition to producing spectacular aurora borealis, have the potential to cause considerable damage to electronic devices, electrical networks, satellite and radio communications systems.
Carrington Event
The “Carrington Event” occurred on September 1st and 2nd, 1859, when a powerful geomagnetic storm struck the Earth during Solar Cycle 10 and caused widespread damage. This incidence is sometimes referred to as the 1859 occurrence.
A CME (coronal mass ejection) slammed the Earth, causing the largest geomagnetic storm ever recorded. Residents of California were under the impression that the Sun rose early.
Because of the tremendous brilliance of the aurora borealis, people in the northeastern United States were able to read a newspaper at night. Because of the severity of the storm, people as far south as Hawaii and as far south as south-central Mexico were able to view the aurora in the sky.
As a result of the incident, there was widespread electrical and communication line failure; telegraph networks all across the world were disrupted, with some telegraph operators getting electric shocks.
An analysis conducted by Lloyd’s of London and Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) in the United States found that if the Carrington event occurred today, the United States could suffer losses in excess of $2.6 trillion, or nearly 15 percent of the country’s annual gross domestic product (GDP).
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Space Weather
While the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and its National Weather Service (NWS) are best known for providing weather forecasts, they are also in charge of “space weather,” which is weather that occurs in space.
In addition to private firms and other organizations that monitor and forecast space weather, the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) is the official source of information on space weather alerts and warnings (SWPC).
The SWPC is a service center for the National Weather Service (NWS), which is a division of NOAA and is based in Boulder, Colorado.
As one of nine National Centers for Environmental Prediction in the United States, they keep track of current space weather operations 24 hours a day, 365 days a year (NCEP)..
