He’s back! He’s back! Old Man Winter is threatening to make another appearance in North Texas next week.
Now I understand what the family in the film Poltergeist was going through.
February in Texas is the coldest and most wintry month of the year, as we all know by this point. Although the coldest temperatures in DFW history, as well as the second coldest temperatures in history, were recorded near Valentine’s Day, February 11 also holds the record for the heaviest snowfall, with 11.2 inches falling on the city in 2010.
And, according to the calendar, it’s still February (which also happens to be my grandmother’s 83rd birthday today!). Granny’s birthday wishes to you! We’re still in danger of getting hit by wintry weather from the north, which means we’re still under threat.
OKAY, BLAKE, YOU DONE DID GOOD WITH THE LAST EVENT, SO LAY IT ON ME. HOW BAD?
Because it is still early in the game, the quick answer is, “I don’t know.” We still have a full week until the event. Because the specifics will have changed a baker’s dozen times by the time we get to seven days out, we are only interested in the patterns and not the particular.
What the trends are suggesting is that the airmass is becoming colder and colder as time passes. They’re picking up on the event, just as they did the previous time – but it’s unclear how severe or how cold it will be this time.
But the weather is forecast to become colder and snowier in the coming days. However, it’s a simple come-and-go situation. Let’s wait and watch how this plays itself out.
Current computer models from the “big three” forecasters predict wintry weather, including sleet, snow, and freezing rain. This includes the European model, the Canadian model, and the Global Forecasting System (GFS). The European model is far and by the most aggressive when it comes to ice, whereas the Global Forecast System is only so-so.
The Canadian model predicted rain throughout the region, with only regions north of the state line receiving a sleet pellet or two, but the current forecast is for freezing rain, sleet, and snow across the DFW region.
When it comes to these events, I can tell you that the GFS is by far the model I am most confident in, as opposed to the other models.
Yes, the Euro is a fantastic model, and it is frequently referred to as “the gold standard” in modeling. That approach, on the other hand, has unquestionably had a difficult time dealing with winter events.
I was absolutely unaware of the event that took place in February until it was practically already taking place. Furthermore, it performed poorly during the winter storm that hit us a few weeks ago.
On the contrary, the GFS accurately predicted the event that occurred in February last year more than a week in advance, as it did the winter storm that occurred a few weeks ago. So, for the time being, the GFS has my attention, and it does predict wintry weather for Dallas-Fort Worth by next Thursday, which is encouraging.
MAYBE WE’RE SEEING A REPEAT OF THE LAST WINTER STORM A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO?
That is yet to be determined. If everything goes as planned, it will be the end of February (the 24th) and the sun angle will be beginning to rise significantly. The arctic air masses are becoming increasingly modified, particularly in light of the dearth of snowfall to our north.
Because there is no snowpack, the cold does not become isolated on its journey south, and it moderates much more quickly than it would otherwise. It is dependent on how cold the temps are, but from where I am standing right now, it does not appear to be as awful.
However, it does not have to be “bad” in order to have extensive effects on travel. Even a little layer of ice may cause chaos on the roadways, especially in the winter.
WHAT SHOULD I DO IN THIS SITUATION?
There is absolutely nothing. This may all be gone in the blink of an eye, much like a platter of cookies in my kitchen. Cookies, please! Whatever you do, just make sure to tune in to CBS 11 at least once a day. By Sunday and Monday, we’ll have a lot more information.