At one point this spring, a staggering 74% of U.S. home listings were getting multiple offers.
Because of recession-induced low mortgage rates, remote work allowing buyers to sprawl further away from their workplace, and a demographic wave of first-time millennial homebuyers entering into the market, there are lots of changes in the 2022 housing market.
Fortune.com reports seven of these forecast models, which are as follows:
Zillow projects home prices will rise 13.6% between Oct. 2021 and Oct. 2022.
“The strong long-term outlook is driven by our expectations for tight market conditions to persist, with demand for housing exceeding the supply of available homes,” wrote the Zillow researchers. In other words, they see the tight—and competitive—housing market, spurred by a perfect storm of pandemic factors and demographics, continuing into 2022.
Goldman Sachs forecasts a 16% uptick between Oct. 2021 and Dec. 2022 (or 13.5% on an annualized basis).
“The supply-demand picture that has been the basis for our call for a multiyear boom in home prices remains intact…Of all the shortages afflicting the U.S. economy, the housing shortage might last the longest,” wrote Goldman Sachs in its 2022 outlook.
Fannie Mae says median home prices are expected to rise 7.9% between the fourth quarter of 2021 and the fourth quarter of 2022.
Fannie Mae also expects mortgage rates to climb next year, with the average 30-year fixed rate rising from 3.1% to 3.4%. But the downward pressure on prices from rising rates, the government-sponsored enterprise says, won’t be enough to actually pull prices down.
Freddie Mac expects strong house price growth to lift home purchase mortgage originations by more than $500 billion from 2020.
“Despite some obvious headwinds, the housing market remains strong as the economy grows,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Even as mortgage rates are expected to increase and home prices continue to rise, homebuyer demand remains steady as inventory issues have slightly improved.”
Models released by Redfin and CoreLogic foresee 12-month price growth falling to 3% and 1.9%, respectively.
Lastly, the Mortgage Bankers Association, an industry trade group, is predicting that the median price of existing homes will decrease by 2.5% between the fourth quarter of 2021 and the fourth quarter of 2022. They are forecasting that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will hit 4% by the end of 2022
“If something changes in the mortgage rate environment, that could throw a massive wrench in everything…Mortgage rates are a bit of an unknown, and they have a direct relation with activity in the housing market,” Devyn Bachman, vice president of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, told Fortune.
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