Twenty-nine college football programmes have a first-year head coach in 2022. The largest single-season turnover in college football history included some forced changes.
Example: The departures of UAB’s Bill Clark and Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley to USC were mostly the consequence of a hot seat that spared few coaches from failing to meet expectations.
Which coaches may be under scrutiny in 2022? Which teams have the best odds to win the conference title at the online sportsbook? Or those with low victory totals and low expectations already?
Herm Edwards Fired
Now that Herm Edwards is in Arizona, who are the other ten coaches in the hot seat after Week 3 of the college football season?
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I thought it was a strange idea.
Herm Edwards’ decision to accept the head coaching position was a risky one, especially considering that the position had previously been held by Billy Napier, the offensive coordinator at Arizona State.
Napier, however, accepted the head coaching position at Louisiana Tech.
He has been a head coach for a long time and has a lot of energy. He seems to have changed Arizona State all by himself with his unique mix of charisma, intelligence, and hard work.
In an ideal world, ASU would have nabbed Pete Carroll, just as USC had nabbed him before.
However, a poor 26-20 record, suspected NCAA infractions, and a disastrous 2-1 start in a home loss to Eastern Michigan (despite being a 20-point favourite) were enough to convince the club to make a change before facing Utah, USC, and Washington in the following three weeks.
That are the other coaches who need a speedy turnaround now that Edwards is gone and Scott Frost is at Nebraska?
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In this context, the term “hot seat” has a significantly different meaning. Some head coaches are in immediate danger of losing their jobs until they start winning, while others seem to be more safe but may still benefit from a run of victories.
Here are five trainers who are unlikely to be fired but may need a pick-me-up, starting with the latter group.
College Football Hot Seat for 2022
Geoff Collins – Georgia Tech
Geoff Collins, who was widely considered a great choice in December 2018 (with an A-grade from Stewart Mandel of The Athletic), has not yet won back-to-back games in three seasons in Atlanta.
Additionally, after Georgia Tech’s 55-0 loss against Notre Dame in November—one of three defeats by at least 30 points in 2021—Michael Cunningham of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution commented that “everyone can see Georgia Tech moving in the wrong way.”
The seven-year contract, which began with the Georgia native’s basic pay of $3 million in 2019 and increased by $100,000 annually until 2025, is already in its fourth year. (Georgia Tech also reimbursed Temple for Collins’ $2.5 million termination buyout.)
David Collins Buyout: Geoff Collins will get a buyout equal to the full balance of his contract if he is dismissed prior to January 1, 2023.
For instance, if he loses his job on December 31, 2022, he is entitled to $10.5 million. However, if dismissed on January 1, 2023, he would only be entitled to $2.4 million for each year that remains, totaling $7.2 million.
Replacing Geoff Collins: As he rebuilds East Carolina from the Scottie Montgomery disaster, Mike Houston is headed for a position in a Power Five conference. Even though he has spent most of his coaching career in the Carolinas, he has never had a coaching position in Georgia.
Karl Dorrell – Colorado
“Karl Dorrell spit in my face with a 4-0 start in his first season after I gave Colorado’s hiring of him a “F” grade in February 2020. The Buffaloes have been terrible since then”.
Dorrell is now rebuilding a depleted team two years after signing a five-year, $18 million deal. He has shown no signs of hope thus far in the 2022 season.
Dorrell, Karl Buyout: If Karl Dorrell is terminated on January 1, 2023, the first day of the fourth year of his contract, his buyout is $7.8 million.
On January 1st, 2024, the sum decreases to $4 million – less any earned pay for the 2023 calendar year. And if dismissed, would Rick George go back to the people on his shortlist from two years ago?
Replacement : Dorrell, Karl If Colorado considered candidates from the 2020 election again, Steve Sarkisian and Bret Bielema would be replaced, but Eric Bienemy and Troy Calhoun would retain their current seats.
If not, Ricky Rahne, the head coach of Old Dominion and a native of Colorado, and Brian Lindgren, the offensive coordinator of Oregon State and a former offensive coordinator of Colorado, might be on the outside looking in.
Bryan Harsin – Auburn
Bryan Harsin transferred to Auburn from Boise State after signing a six-year, $31.5 million deal. It nearly resulted in a $23 million, one-year deal.
Harsin was able to deal with a lot of problems after the season ended, including a lot of player and staff transfers and claims of abuse, as well as an internal investigation that “did not provide information” that led to calls for his resignation.
After earning $5 million in base pay in 2021, Harsin would have been entitled to a buyout of almost $18 million (70% of the contract’s remaining value), if the facts did justify a dismissal without reason.
And given the current state of the Tigers’ program, which was most recently hurt by a lacklustre home loss to Penn State, it could have been worth it.
Buyout of Bryan Harsin: Harsin was formally found not guilty of any misconduct, but he is still a six-win coach who has both on-and off-field problems.
If the situation doesn’t change in 2022 and he is dismissed, Auburn would be responsible for paying him a $15 million buyout and starting a new coaching search in two years.
Replacement for Bryan Harsin: Billy Napier, Steve Sarkisian, Brent Venables, and Tony Elliott, four of the rumoured contenders on Auburn’s list, currently have Power Five positions, might drastically alter their list this time.
If Bill Clark is still capable of coaching, they may give him another chance, or they could contact Dave Aranda, Blake Anderson, or Mike Houston.
Chip Kelly – UCLA
Even though the Bruins celebrated as if they had won the title, UCLA’s comeback victory against South Alabama and its 28-point victory over Bowling Green in Week 1 didn’t seem like victories.
Late in 2017, Chip Kelly had an option between two jobs: Florida and UCLA, one year after his second unsuccessful NFL stint and almost five years since his last position in college football.
According to Troy Aikman, a former UCLA quarterback and member of the hiring search committee, he toyed with the idea of playing for the Gators before deciding on the Bruins, where he could compete for national titles.
Chip Kelly has hardly been a Pac-12 South contender in any of his four seasons.
Buyout of Chip Kelly: After an eight-win year, the former two-time Pac-10 Coach of the Year signed an extension in January.
His previous five-year, $23.3 million contract, which had no buyout after January 15, 2022, was replaced with the new four-year, $22 million agreement that runs through the 2025 campaign.
The new buyout for Kelly is 70% of his basic salary until December 15, 2023. For instance, if he loses his job on December 16, 2022, he’ll be entitled $3.8 million, or 70% of one year’s income.
Chip Kelly’s replacement, Martin Jarmond, hired Jeff Hafley for Boston College and was involved in a number of high-profile searches while working as an assistant and deputy athletic director at Ohio State.
However, in his two years as the athletic director of UCLA, he has yet to hire anyone for football or men’s basketball.
Jarmond should have the cash to make some jabs at Power Five coaches with Big Ten money on the horizon. Maybe Justin Wilcox, Dave Aranda, or Dave Doeren could create short lists. Might Barry Odom, the adoring defensive coordinator for Arkansas, be a target?
Seth Littrell – North Texas
Even if SMU turns out to be a top-tier Group of Five squad, North Texas’ humiliating defeat to their crosstown rivals, as well as more recently, a humiliating loss to UNLV in Week 3, were alarming.
Seth Littrell’s coaching stock caught fire three years ago. The 40-year-old former running back for Oklahoma, Littrell, was a prospective Power Five head coach waiting for the perfect phone call.
He had 15 years of Power Five coaching experience, 18 victories in his past two seasons at North Texas, and was a former running back for Oklahoma.
And in December 2018, when Kansas State gave him the opportunity to succeed Bill Snyder, Littrell got the appropriate call, or so he thought at the time. When Littrell withdrew from consideration, what was generally believed to be a done deal fell through at the last minute.
Since the phone conversation, the Mean Green have become completely irrelevant on the national stage, and Littrell’s career may have needed to be saved by a late-season five-game winning run. And to save his job in 2022, he could need more late-season brilliance.
Toby Littrell Buyout: Littrell’s five-year contract, which includes a basic salary of almost $1.3 million per year, is valid until the 2023 campaign. He would only be owed a little over $1 million if dismissed at the conclusion of the 2022 season.
Seth Littrell’s replacement is Graham Harrell, a 36-year-old former Texas Tech quarterback who served as offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at North Texas from 2016 to 2018. Harrell afterwards accepted the same post at USC.
Scott Satterfield – Louisville
Scott Satterfield promised Louisville football season ticket holders on December 10, 2020: “In the next days, weeks, and months, I will do everything it takes to regain the trust and support of each and every single one of you.”
Days earlier, Satterfield had interviewed for South Carolina’s head coaching position and provided an odd justification for doing so.
Satterfield didn’t go into detail about what was “required to gain back the faith and support” of the supporters, but winning was probably at the top of the list. And he doesn’t win that often.
Satterfield, Scott Buyout: The 48-year-old former App State coach has a sliding buyout that will decrease to $4.875 after the 2022 season, is hanging around.500 in four seasons, and has had difficulty recruiting. (Bobby Petrino received a $14 million buyout.)
Satterfield, Mr. Director of Athletics, Vince Tyra has the opportunity of substituting Jeff Brohm with some other Group of Five coach, such as Jamey Chadwell or Tyson Helton.
Jeff Scott – South Florida
The future in South Florida “is quite bright.” Before the Bulls’ four-point defeat to UCF in the regular-season finale, which reduced them to 2-10 in 2021 and 3-17 overall in Scott’s two seasons as head coach, athletics director Michael Kelly praised Scott.
Scott’s overall record fell to 4-18 after a lopsided home defeat to BYU in Week 1 and a victory over Howard in Week 2. He still only has four victories in three seasons, even if the 19th defeat, a close loss to Florida in Week 3, seemed more like a program-building triumph.
Three of his four victories were against FCS teams, while the fourth was against a Temple team with three victories.
However, Kelly cites other games’ competitiveness, such as an eight-point defeat to BYU and a good performance versus Cincinnati in 2021, as well as increased recruitment and facilities upgrades as grounds for confidence.
Steve Scott Buyout: Scott’s five-year, $12.5 million deal has an unusual buyout clause that entitles him to 20 weeks of his basic salary ($500,000), or around $192,000, if dismissed without reason. Find out more here: What is the buyout for Jeff Scott?
Steve Scott Replacement: Willie Simmons, head coach of Florida A&M. Ironically, Simmons, a former colleague of Jeff Scott’s at Clemson, had a record of 18-5 over the previous two years in Tallahassee after winning 21 games in three seasons at Prairie View A&M.
David Shaw – Stanford
This was inexplicable four years ago, since David Shaw’s job security was supposedly the finest in college football, along with that of Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney.
In his first eight seasons as Cardinals head coach, the former receiver won 82 games. They lost just 17 conference games, won three conference titles (and two more division crowns), and almost reached the national championship. He’s won around one-third of the games over the last three years.
With a top-30 (247Sports) recruiting class for 2022 and only three years away from his eighth nine-win campaign in eight years, Shaw is the greatest coach in school history. Would another season with three or four wins, though, tip the scales in the wrong direction?
Shaw, David Buyout: Although Shaw’s whole contract has never been made available to the public, his purported $8.9 million salary for 2019 suggests that his agreement contains an eight-figure buyout.
Shaw, David Replacement: I’m not sure. If he’s disappeared, it may be mutual and call for Shaw’s aid in the hunt.
They may be able to convince Dave Clawson to quit Wake Forest. Or try hitting Tommy Rees, a native of California? If not, Blake Anderson, Jeff Monken, and Jay Norvell should also be taken into account.
College Football Odds at BetMGM
This season, online betting is a novel technique to enhance your college football fun.
From August until the College Football Playoff in January, there are always new ranges, over/under totals, live betting markets, and much more for dozens of FBS and FCS games.